Anthropic RL lead predicts AI may win a Fields Medal in 2028 and a Nobel Prize before 2030

Sholto Douglas and Nick Marwell, who lead Anthropic's reinforcement learning team, predicted on a podcast that it is quite likely AI will win a Fields Medal in 2028 and could win a Nobel Prize before 2030, but probably not a Pulitzer Prize yet. They said models can already independently complete one to two days of work, and that Frontier Math scores rose from 0% to over 50% within a year, while the cost of equivalent intelligence falls about 10x per year. They also judged that biology will be the most affected field in the next 6 to 24 months, and that the bottleneck will shift from model capability to the number and quality of US laboratories.